close
close
quic3f

Army vs Air Force score prediction by expert football model

The next leg in the Commander-in-Chief Trophy series begins Saturday as undefeated play-off hopeful No. 21 Army takes on the Air Force. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game, based on an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

One of the few remaining undefeated teams in college football, Army sits atop the AAC standings and is emerging as a playoff contender as we enter the crucial November of football.

Air Force is heading in the opposite direction, trailing 1-6 overall and winless in Mountain West play this season, and ranking second nationally in passing and scoring.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Black Knights and Falcons meet in this battle of the service academies?

Before that, let’s take a look at the SP+ prediction model to get an example of how Army and Air Force stack up in this Week 10 college football game.

As expected, the models strongly favor the Black Knights over the Falcons.

SP+ predicts that the army will beat the air force with a expected score of 41 to 10 and wins the game with one expected margin of 30.2 points in the process.

The model gives the Black Knights an almost perfect performance 97 percent chance of an outright victory.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? Year to date, the SP+ model is 239-221-5 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 28-27-1 (50.9%) this past weekend.

Army is one 21.5 points favorite against Air Force, according to updated rules on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 42.5 points for the game (over -105, under -115).

And it set up the moneyline opportunities for Army -4000 and for the air force +1400 to win outright.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you must take into account…

If you do, you’ll be in the company of most bettors, who give the Black Knights a decisive lead over the Falcons, according to the most recent consensus picks for the game.

The army gets 63 percent of bets to win the game and cover the generous point spread to remain undefeated.

The other 37 percent of betting odds, Project Air Force will either win outright in an upset or, more likely, keep the game under 3 touchdowns in a loss.

Army has been 26.8 points better than the competition on average this season, while Air Force has been 16.7 points worse than its opponents in 2024.

Over the past three games, Army’s average advantage has increased to 31 points better than its opponents, while the Falcons’ margin of defeat has remained the same.

Army have played a little closer at home, but still by large margins, on average 24.7 points better than his opponents at West Point.

On the road, the Air Force has achieved an average this season 18.3 points worse than the competition.

Most other analytical models also favor the Black Knights over the Falcons in this matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The army is expected to win the game overwhelmingly 94.8 percent of the most recent computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves the Air Force as the presumptive winner in the remainder 5.2 percent from sims.

And the models also project a comfortable margin of victory for the Black Knights.

The military is expected to be like this 25.8 points better then the Air Force on the same field in the game’s latest projected simulations in the model’s latest prediction.

More… Army vs. Air Force Prediction: What the Analytics Say

The Army is the first of the AAC teams to have one 22.1 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI statistics.

That model gives the Black Knights a total earnings prediction of 10.6 games this season.

The index projects the Air Force will win 2 games in ’24, according to the most recent calculations.

FPI estimates the Falcons are 16 points worse than an average opponent on a neutral field, and has a 0 percent chance to play postseason football.

When: Saturday November 2
Time: 12:00 Eastern
TV: CBS Network

The game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football Headquarters: Bookmark | Rankings | Choices

Related Articles

Back to top button