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Gerrit Cole leads to opt-out in deal with Yankees

Right-handed Gerrit Kool has activated the opt-out in his deal with the Yankees, according to Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan of ESPN on at the same $36 million salary as the rest of the contract.

Cole’s original deal with the Yanks was for $324 million over nine years, with equal salaries of $36 million in each season starting in 2020. Under that deal, he could opt out after five years and walk away from the final four years and $144 million. The Yanks could then commit another $36 million for 2029 and nullify the opt-out. Now that Cole has activated his opt-out, the Yankees must now effectively decide whether they want Cole back for $180 million over the next five years. If not, Cole will return to free agency.

For the first few years of the contract, Cole continued to pitch to his usual excellent standards. From 2020 through 2023, he pitched 664 innings, good for 3.08 earned runs per nine. He struck out 31.1% of batters, limited walks to a 5.9% clip and grounders at a 41.1% clip. He has 15.4 wins above replacement in that time, according to FanGraphs’ calculations, fifth in the majors behind Zack Wieler, Corbin Burnes, Kevin Gausman And Aaron Nola. He won the American League Cy Young last year with a 2.63 ERA over 209 innings.

During that time, it seemed pretty clear how the contract situation would play out. Cole would make the no-brainer decision to activate his opt-out, while the Yanks would make the equally easy decision to add an additional year, bringing their total stake to $360 million over ten years come.

But the path forward became a little less certain as things evolved into 2024. Cole suffered an elbow injury during spring training and was shut down for a while. No structural damage was found, but he was sent to the 60-day injured list while he underwent his non-surgical rehabilitation. He was eventually able to take the mound again and made his season debut in mid-June.

He was a bit shaky at first, posting a 6.75 ERA through his first four starts, but from then on his numbers were much more Cole-esque. He posted a 2.67 ERA in his final 13 starts of the year. His 25.7% strikeout rate wasn’t quite back to his usual levels, but his 6.8% walk rate was still quite strong. He made five more postseason starts with a 2.17 ERA, helping the Yanks reach their first World Series since 2009.

Although Cole has seemed like his old self for months, the Yanks may still have to think about this. As seen in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the biggest deal for a pitcher 34 or older was the five years and $185 million the Rangers gave him. Jacob de Grom. That deal hasn’t gone well so far, as deGrom required Tommy John surgery and barely pitched for the Rangers in the first two years of that pact. The Yankees would essentially have to honor that deal to keep Cole from getting away. As mentioned, keeping the extra year would mean Cole would have to pay $180 million over the next five years, just under the deGrom deal.

Cole’s sustainability record is much better than deGrom’s. Cole has thrown almost 2,000 innings so far in his career, while deGrom was just over 1,300 when he signed with Texas. Still, Cole has just recovered from a notable absence related to his throwing elbow. Most other pitchers in this age range signed shorter deals with higher average annual values, with Wheeler’s recent extension with the Phillies paying $126 million over three years. Max Scherzer‘s deal with the Mets was for $130 million over three years, although he was a few years older and that deal started at age 37.

The Yankees are faced with the prospect of Juan Soto hitting free agency and Cole may be a second superstar to leave. Some have argued that the Soto situation should motivate the Yanks to keep Cole just to avoid the possibility of losing two stars after a frustrating World Series loss. On the other hand, some have suggested that the Yanks might be happy with an extra $36 million in payroll space to lure Soto back to the Bronx.

The latter line of thought would leave a big hole in the rotation, but it wouldn’t be a terrible group without Cole. The expected rotation would still include Carlos Rodon, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, Nestor Cortes And Marcus Stroman. If the Yanks were to let Cole go, they could focus on Soto and circle back to him later or pursue a few other starting pitchers. They had expressed interest in Blake Snell last winter and he opts out of his deal and becomes a free agent again. Burnes, Jack Flaherty, Max Fried and much more. Garrett hook, Erik Fedde and dozens of others could be commercially available.

It’s one of the more interesting decisions of the offseason. Most free agent contracts provide the best returns in the early years and become more painful as the deals progress. The Yankees have a chance to walk away from the best years and perhaps avoid the downside. But that would mean one of the best pitchers in the league would slip through their fingers. They have until Sunday evening to decide, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale on X.

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