HawgBeat Staff Score Predictions: Arkansas vs Ole Miss

The Arkansas Razorbacks (5-3, 3-2 SEC) play the No. 19 Ole Miss Rebels (6-2, 2-2 SEC) on Saturday at 11 a.m. CT at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville.

Ole Miss hasn’t won in Fayetteville since 2008 and the Rebels will look to build on a 26-14 win over Oklahoma last week. The Razorbacks will look to play spoiler after dominating Mississippi State 58-25 last time out.

“We’re pretty healthy,” Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman said Wednesday. “We know we’re going to play a really good Ole Miss team. Well coached. Coach (Lane) Kiffin, great football coach. His staff, a lot of talent there, and we’re looking forward to having them here at home 11 o’clock on ESPN.”

Arkansas has a 38-29-1 lead over Ole Miss in the all-time series, including a 13-2 edge in games played in Fayetteville. The Rebels won 27-20 on their home field last season and the Razorbacks won 42-27 the last time the teams met at Razorback Stadium in 2022.

The Razorbacks are aiming for their seventh 4-2 or better league start since joining the SEC in 1992. Previous starts of 4-2 or better include 1995 (5-2), 1998 (5-1), 2006 (6-0), 2010 (4-2), 2011 (5-1) and 2015 (4- 2).

Arkansas is a 7.5-point underdog against the Rebels (BetSaracen). Here’s how the HawgBeat staff predicts Saturday’s game, which will air on ESPN:

This is a game Ole Miss cannot afford to lose if it wants to make the College Football Playoff. With a game against Georgia looming, this one could easily seem a lot less important.

As for Arkansas, the Hogs have a chance to eliminate a ranked team before a bye week for the second time this season. The last time they did that was on October 5 against Tennessee, a team with a similar composition to the Rebels.

I think the Razorbacks can absolutely win this game and I wouldn’t be shocked if they do, but Ole Miss has to win this game.

Ole Miss 35, Arkansas 28

This Ole Miss team is difficult to judge. The defense is undoubtedly good, but the offense was seemingly…disappointing? I didn’t expect that in the preseason, but the Rebels have made it work for the most part so far.

The question is whether Arkansas’ offensive performance against Mississippi State was a case of fool’s gold (I’m leaning yes) and whether the defensive performance was a case of playing to the opponent (not so confident here with recent trends).

On paper, Ole Miss should win this game. They are the better team and are doing well against Arkansas. But college football is a fickle thing, and this series rarely shows the predictable. In a highly competitive and potentially rainy game, the Razorbacks get the ball last and… on top of that, the Rebels make one more big play than the Hogs and Lane Kiffin picks up his first win in Fayetteville in dramatic fashion.

Ole Miss 24, Arkansas 23

Having already beaten a Mississippi team last weekend with a thrashing of Mississippi State, the Arkansas Razorbacks now turn their attention to the Rebels, who always seem to give the Hogs a good game.

Taylen Green will need to repeat what he did last week and Braylen Russell will need to continue his strong ground game if Arkansas wants to pull out a win.

I like Arkansas’ chances in this game, and it’s an added help that it’s at home, but I haven’t seen the Hogs have any week-to-week success since conference play began, so I’ll take it this rebelled against them.

Ole Miss 42, Arkansas 28

This game is hard to read. On one hand, the Razorbacks had the advantage when playing ranked Ole Miss opponents in Fayetteville of late. Dating back to 2014, Arkansas is 3-0 against ranked Ole Miss teams in Fayetteville, including a 42-27 win in 2022.

On the other hand, this Ole Miss team is probably better than the previous three that the Razorbacks have beaten. Head coach Lane Kiffin has the Rebels at 6-2 (2-2) with close losses to LSU and Kentucky.

Arkansas’ pass defense will be tested with the Rebels’ vaunted passing attack and threat in Tre Harris. Ole Miss is no stranger to scoring points, but has struggled to score in SEC play, averaging just 24.0 points per game in the conference.

This play comes down to a few factors: (1) can Arkansas generate defensive stops, (2) can Arkansas execute in the red zone, and (3) can Arkansas take care of the ball?

If the Razorbacks do two of these three things, I think they win the game. The offense has looked much better lately and the addition of Patrick Kutas to the offensive line could be crucial to the success of the entire offense as the pass protection and Taylen Green have looked much better when he has been on the field.

I’ve wavered back and forth enough. As difficult as the reading is, I’ll have to go with Arkansas on this one.

Arkansas 30, Ole Miss 24

The Rebs and Hogs have had some memorable moments over the past 24 years. Who can forget the seven-overtime game in 2001 or Hunter Henry’s fourth-and-25 or Hudson Clark’s three picks in 2020?

Arkansas always gets up to play the Rebels and I think this Saturday will be no different. Defensive coordinator Travis Williams will need to strengthen his unit as the Rebels are better than their local brethren Mississippi State and Jaxson Dart is one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

Taylen Green is getting better every week. Braylen Russell looked great against a bad defense. He will find it harder to break up runs against a stout Ole Miss defensive line.

I hate that this is an 11am game because home field advantage could play a big factor. Ultimately, I think Ole Miss has the intangibles and wins another close game.

Ole Miss 31, Arkansas 24

Mason Choate: 4-4 overall, 4-4 ATS

Riley McFerran: 4-4 overall, 4-4 ATS

Daniel Fair: 4-4 overall, 2-6 ATS

Jackson Collier: 5-3 overall, 5-3 ATS

Kevin Bohannon: 6-2 overall, 4-4 ATS

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