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Notre Dame’s College Football Playoff roots guide: Which games matter most to Irish?

SOUTH BEND, Ind. – Maybe you’ve never heard of Rich Clark. That’s fine. It’s probably temporary too.

The first-year executive director of the College Football Playoff was present for Notre Dame’s win over Texas A&M over Labor Day weekend, while the former Air Force lieutenant general fills the role that Bill Hancock held for the previous 12 seasons. If the new 12-team CFP has a spokesperson, it’s Clark.

And Clark was on a microphone this week, trying to raise expectations before the first CFP rankings of the season come out Tuesday.

For Notre Dame, it’s worth paying attention to what Clark said. Because it feels like the goalposts are moving before they are installed.

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Clark was asked about conference championship games and their impact on the final rankings, which are still more than a month away. Notre Dame will not participate in a conference title game, missing any chance for a first-round bye. But the assumption was that teams that fell during the championship weekend would also suffer a defeat in the rankings.

If there is a reward, shouldn’t there also be a risk?


Riley Leonard has led Notre Dame to six straight wins. (Vincent Carchietta / image)

“I don’t think any team would be unnecessarily punished if they lost in a conference championship game,” Clark said this week. “The fact that they are in a championship game, I don’t think that will be a major data point that the committee will evaluate. It’s just going to be what happened in that game.”

In the most literal sense, that could mean that if Notre Dame and a Power 4 team both finish 11-1, the conference team that loses on championship weekend won’t be punished. Or, to name a more realistic scenario, if BYU and Iowa State met undefeated in the Big 12 Championship Game, the loser would be treated as a 12-0 team by the committee after losing. Or maybe Penn State versus Oregon in the Big Ten. Or even Clemson versus Miami in the ACC.

You get the point. Because all algorithms are available to project the field onto The Athletics (or elsewhere), there is a human element that we don’t understand, because no one has ever laid out a field of twelve teams. How much does beating a potential SEC champion help? How much does losing against a mediocre MAC program hurt? It’s impossible to know what trapdoors could open for Notre Dame, whether they would knock the Irish out of hosting a first-round game or perhaps even knock them out altogether.

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As Notre Dame heads into its second bye week, here’s a viewer’s guide to the games that matter most for the Irish to reach the 12-team field and how high they can rise in those rankings.

Litmus test: Ohio State at Penn State

Notre Dame, Ohio State and Penn State have all played similar schedules, according to the Sagarin rankings, with the Irish (No. 56), Buckeyes (No. 52) and Nittany Lions (No. 43) all combined. If No. 3 Penn State (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten) suffers a home loss to a top-10 team this weekend, would James Franklin’s program fall below Marcus Freeman’s in the initial rankings? it’s hard to say. Or what if No. 4 Ohio State (6-1, 3-1) suffers a second loss, but both are against top-five teams? Would the two-loss Buckeyes, fresh off a battle to beat Nebraska, fall below Notre Dame?

One way or another, Notre Dame will get data next week on how it stacks up against a Big Ten heavyweight. If Penn State wins, Ohio State would be virtually eliminated from contention for the Big Ten Championship Game. The Buckeyes wouldn’t suffer a bad loss, but they wouldn’t have a big win either. If Ohio State wins, it would be the same for the Nittany Lions: not a big win but not a bad loss.

Ohio State still hosts Indiana and Michigan in the final two weeks of the regular season. That means the Buckeyes will get national attention, even with a loss at State College. However, Penn State could be out of the picture with a loss as it closes with Washington, Purdue, Minnesota and Maryland. And one loss may be too many to reach the Big Ten Championship Game.

The best case for Notre Dame? Probably a Penn State win.

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Secret problem… SMU?

As tempting as it may be to look at the rankings to see how high Notre Dame can climb between now and Selection Sunday, there is one former Group of 5 program that shouldn’t be dismissed: No. 20 SMU (7-1 , 4 -0 ACC) hosts No. 18 Pittsburgh (7-0, 3-0) this weekend, with the Mustangs a 7.5-point favorite at home.

If SMU knocks off Pitt, the ACC newcomer will likely win — Boston College, in Virginia, Cal stays — and there’s a good chance the Mustangs will miss the ACC Championship Game if Clemson and Miami win, which would likely be fifth in the league activates. tiebreaker (combined winning percentage of conference opponents). The prospect of a team going undefeated in conference play and not having a chance to play its way into the CFP was more or less why SMU picked the American Athletic Conference in the first place.

The only blemish on SMU’s record is an 18-15 home loss to undefeated BYU. SMU beat Louisville by a touchdown and blew out Stanford…which probably feels familiar for Notre Dame. Virginia represents a third common opponent, with the Cavaliers heading to South Bend on Nov. 16 before visiting Dallas a week later.

According to Sagarin, SMU’s schedule ranks No. 58, compared to Notre Dame at No. 56.

Notre Dame and SMU may feel like incongruous candidates for the CFP, but a look under the hood reveals more similarities than differences. But that all goes away if SMU loses to Pitt at home on Saturday night. And Pitt still faces Clemson on Nov. 16, which would likely leave the loser behind Notre Dame for good.

The best case for Notre Dame? Pittsburgh eliminates SMU and falls to Clemson two weeks later.

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Please don’t screw it up: Texas A&M at South Carolina

Winning in College Station means Notre Dame has one of the best wins in college football this season. At least until Texas A&M loses again.

If that loss comes in the regular season finale at home against Texas, Notre Dame can probably live with that. The Aggies would trail Notre Dame for good, and the Irish would still pick up a win over a 10-2 team in the SEC. The Longhorns would likely be headed to the CFP no matter what happened in the SEC Championship Game, likely a rematch with Georgia.

But that’s all for December…

What Notre Dame needs now is for Texas A&M to emerge from Columbia unscathed, although the three-point spread in the Aggies’ favor suggests a dangerous spot. Maintaining that “big win” through the unveiling of the first rankings would be a boon for Notre Dame. Texas A&M faces New Mexico State and Auburn the next two weeks before heading to Texas over Thanksgiving weekend. If that “big win” makes it to Saturday, it will last until Thanksgiving weekend.

It’s just hard to forget No. 5 Tennessee at Columbia in South Carolina two years ago. Those Gamecocks lost by 32 points at Florida a week earlier and then destroyed the Volunteers.

The best case for Notre Dame? Duh. Texas A&M keeps winning.

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The chaos chain: everything else

These aren’t the only games that matter to Notre Dame’s CFP positioning, they’re actually the most obvious. Who would have labeled Alabama at Vanderbilt as having an impact on the CFP when it kicked off during Notre Dame’s first bye week?

That’s why Indiana at Michigan State and Texas Tech at Iowa State are also worth watching. The Hoosiers and Cyclones are undefeated CFP candidates who might be able to take a loss and still make the field, but it’s hard to believe they’d be ahead of Notre Dame with one loss unless they somehow improve their would win conferences.

There’s also Louisville at Clemson, which would give Notre Dame a new point of comparison against the Tigers, who have already defeated Florida State, Virginia and Stanford. Or what about Oregon traveling to Michigan? That’s a pure chaos game for Notre Dame, one that probably looks like a blowout on paper…but it’s college football. Anything can happen.

That’s why this weekend could be seismic for Notre Dame, even as the Irish sit at home watching the madness unfold. Since the loss to Northern Illinois, the Irish have kept their end of the bargain. Now the rest of the real CFP candidates must do the same.

(Top photo of Marcus Freeman: Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

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