Here’s who’s in charge in the key 2024 election battlegrounds

Harris has a 49%-48% lead among voters in all seven battleground states, according to a new HarrisX/Forbes poll from Thursday, a statistical tie — but 14% of swing state voters are still weighing their options, meaning there is plenty of room for the race to change.

North Carolina: Harris leads 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS poll released Thursday (4.5 point margin of error), an outlier among several other polls this week showing Trump ahead, including a Fox News poll showing he is up 49%-47% (or 50%-49% without third parties), while leading 50%-48% in surveys released this past week by the Cooperative Election Study, Marist and Emerson College. FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Trump with a 1.3-point lead.

Georgia: Trump has a 48%-47% lead in Thursday’s CNN/SSRS poll (4.7 margin of error), and he has a more substantial 51%-46% lead in the CES poll (2,663 respondents) and 49.9%-48.4% in last week’s Bloomberg survey, although they are at 49% in a Marist survey (margin of error 3.9), and from a Washington Post-Schar survey (margin of error 4.5 ) showed Harris ahead 51%-47%. Trump leads by 1.6 points in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Pennsylvania: It couldn’t get any closer – Harris is ahead 50%-48% in a Marist poll and 48%-47% in a Washington Post poll, both released Friday, the candidates are tied at 48% in Fox News and CNN/SSRS polls were released Wednesday and it’s 49%-49% in the CBS/YouGov poll, while Trump is up 47%-46% in a Quinnipiac poll from Wednesday and Harris is ahead 49%-48% has in a large Cooperative Election Study survey (3,685 respondents). Monmouth found that Trump is up 47%-46% among all registered voters, but Harris leads 48%-47% among people who vote in most elections. Overall, Trump leads Harris by 0.4 points in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Michigan: Harris is up three points, 51%-48%, in the Marist poll, while Trump has a rare lead in a Washington Post poll released Thursday that shows him up 47%-45%, though out of three other surveys this week show Harris with a lead, including the Fox News poll that found her up 48%-46% (though there’s a tie at 49% without third parties), 51%-46% in the CES poll (2,336 respondents) and 48%-43% in the CNN/SSRS poll — while Trump leads 49%-48% in an Emerson poll released Tuesday (margin of error 3 points). Harris is 1.1 points higher in Michigan in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Wisconsin: Harris is 50%-48% higher in the Marist survey and 50%-47% higher than Trump in the CES survey (1,542 respondents), 51%-45% in the CNN/SSRS survey and 50%-49% in a Marquette poll, while Trump is up 49% to 48% in an Emerson poll and the two candidates are at 48% in a Quinnipiac poll. Harris is 0.7 points higher than the FiveThirtyEight average.

Nevada: Harris leads Trump 48%-47% in an Emerson poll released Friday (3.6 point margin of error) and 51%-47% in the CES poll (933 respondents), while Trump is ahead 48%-47% is in a CNN/SSRS survey released Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points) and Harris is up 48.8%-48.3% in an Oct. 23 Bloomberg survey (margin of error 5). Harris is 0.1 point higher in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Arizona: Trump is up 51%-47% in the CES survey (2,066 respondents), and he leads 50%-49% in a Marist survey released October 24 (margin of error 3.7) and 49%-46% in a Washington Post -Schar School poll (margin of error 5), while Harris leads 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS poll this week (margin of error 4.4). Trump is up 2.3 points in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.