San Diego State vs. Boise State Prediction: College Football Odds, Picks

The Boise State Broncos are in the driver’s seat for the Group of 5 College Football Playoff bid.

They are now 6-1 after a blowout win over UNLV last week.

The Broncos’ lone loss came against AP No. 1 Oregon on a last-second field goal.

Boise State is a fantastic team led by a Heisman favorite in running back Ashton Jeanty and a constantly improving quarterback in Maddux Madsen.

A fully healthy, motivated Broncos team would have no problem toppling the 3-4 San Diego State Aztecs.

That said, I wonder if the Broncos are healthy or motivated for Friday’s showdown.

Read on for my San Diego State vs Boise State odds, predictions and picks for their Week 10 college football game on Friday, November 1.

San Diego State vs. Boise State odds

San Diego State vs. Boise State Prediction

(8 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1)

As far as motivation goes, I wouldn’t be surprised if Boise sleepwalks through this game after an emotional win last week.

Health-wise, Jeanty looks shaken.

He appeared to injure his left arm in the first half against UNLV, and went on to post his worst stat line of the year (33 carries, 128 yards, 3.9 yards per carry).

I wouldn’t be surprised if head coach Spencer Danielson limits Jeanty’s use as a 24-point favorite against a much inferior opponent.

Obviously, this would degrade Boise State’s rushing attack significantly.

Madsen stepped up during Jeanty’s upset against UNLV, but I’m still skeptical about his upside as a passer.

San Diego State’s front seven is weak, but the secondary is half-decent, ranking 26th nationally in EPA per Pass Allowed and 27th in Pro Football Focus coverage grades.

A limited Jeanty bodes well for the Aztec defense, as Boise should focus more over the top.

Unfortunately, I don’t have any confidence in the Aztecs’ offense, which ranks 118th nationally in success rate (37%) and second-to-last in average third yardage left to go (8.4 yards ).

Head coach Sean Lewis is considered an intelligent offensive coach, but he hasn’t done anything with quarterback Danny O’Neil.

San Diego State vs. Boise State picks

I’m counting on a lower scoring ballgame.

While Boise’s defense is flawed, San Diego State can’t move the ball consistently against anyone. The Aztecs have averaged 332 yards per game in their three road games this season, up from 5.1 yards per game.

In the meantime, I expect a limited offensive effort from Boise State.

The Broncos will likely want to build a margin in the first half, keep the ball in the second half and leave the game healthy.

Betting on college football?

At the very least, we can expect a rushed game script.

Boise State likes to lean on Jeanty, while San Diego State’s most talented offensive playmaker is pursuing Marquez Cooper (748 yards, 4.4 yards per carry, eight touchdowns this season).

These two offenses rank in the top 40 nationally in rush rate above expectations.

A hasty game script keeps the clock running, leaving little time to score.

My numbers project the upper/lower around 56, but then I take into account a healthy Jeanty. Given the context and the matchup, under 57 or better is worth playing.

Pick: Under 57.5 (-110, BetMGM) | Play below 57 (-110)

Why trust New York Post betting

Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. He specializes in college sports and baseball and is a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and every underdog in the house. He found himself on the wrong end of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made amends four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot over Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.